Threats of the green economy
Flying is getting more expensive. Fuel is getting more expensive, and it takes a lot of it for a flight: the
newset Airbus A321Neo burns 40 liters of kerosene per minute, so almost half of the ticket price depends on
the fuel market situation.
At the moment of a decline in traffic during the pandemic, airlines did not stop the work of press offices.
Due to the running flywheel of rumors, the impression was that the voice of the greens was heard, and
airlines seriously thought about transferring their fleets to green fuel. While the planes were on the
ground, few people were embarrassed by the 4-fold difference in the price of regular and biofuel.
However, now when the crisis in aviation associated with the pandemic is almost over, there is more talk.
Let’s see where this leads.
1) Green fuel producers are interested in starting to sell it: Exxon Mobile has delivered 1.25 million
liters to Singapore, which is enough for a hundred medium-haul flights.
2) Airlines do not want to pay the “green fee”. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM talked back in the winter that
this could create a non-competitive advantage for airlines that don’t need to invest in a green economy.
3) The EU last summer adopted an amendment to legislation that abolishes tax breaks for aviation fuel – now
carriers will either have to pay more for kerosene or switch to more environmentally friendly fuel.
4) According to IATA, the cost of kerosene itself has increased by 144% since last year.
So, it may well turn out that everyone who wants to fly to Europe will be required to comply with
environmental standards. And this will lead to transport stratification. The EU will take care of “its own”:
it is worth remembering the huge state loans that some carriers received during the height of the pandemic.
But the new standards will not be affordable for passengers from many other, less wealthy countries. In this
case, their governments will have to negotiate with the EU, and this gives the latter another tool of
influence, and the opportunity to maintain a reputation as a defender of underdeveloped third countries
seeking to come into contact with European civilization.
Russia still produces world-class aviation kerosene, including for export. There is still enough time to
start complying with the new world trends, which are being actively promoted in the West. According to
Shell’s optimistic forecast, the share of biofuel sales will reach 10% of the global market only by 2030.
In the Netherlands, in 2022, were planned to open a plant with the ability to produce 125 million liters of
fuel annually, while the Finnish “Neste” will quadruple production this year and produce 500 million liters
of biofuel per year.
As for the OPEC countries, we have no data that it is planned to produce biofuels on their territories.